Coronavirus (March 30th.)
2020 sees a rapidly changing world in the throes of a pandemic. The accepted wisdom is to lock down society to reduce the spread and cope with limited hospital facilities. If normality is restricted for an extended period economic and social chaos may well follow. Unintentionally, this may cost more lives in the hardship that follows than the Coronavirus itself. Perhaps limited social mixing, increased emphasis on hygiene and a return to necessary economic activity would be a more sensible approach to this crisis. Experts and their predictions have a long history of being wrong.
(May 20th 2020) Even though Sweden and others have not locked down, the daily cases and deaths are producing very similar graphical curves. Testing shows that herd immunity levels are very gradually increasing with lockdown. But what if a significant % had natural immunity as did two thirds of the population of London to the Plague in the 1660s. It would mean that countries that had suffered badly initially such as Italy, Spain and UK will not see such a large second wave of infections if restrictions are eased. This theory could be tested with a large radomised selection of humans putting themselves at risk, but if it turned out to confirm the above speculation it would allow us to return to some type of normality. Covid 19 may be with us for some time and a vaccine is not a certainty. There is still a great deal we are yet to learn about this catastrophy. Boris,what's your plan? Countless lockdowns till we're too impoverised to care if we live or die!